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The Indian Railways has revealed how waiting list tickets are confirmed and the formula used for confirmation
The Railway Ministry reserves 10% seats under an emergency quota. (News18 Hindi)
Passengers travelling by train often face confusion when they receive a waiting list ticket. Getting tickets in the waiting list leaves passengers unsure whether their ticket will be confirmed, which complicates journey planning. This is particularly challenging for office workers, as they also need to coordinate their leave days.
Predicting how many waiting list tickets might be confirmed is difficult. While some websites offer probability estimates, these are not always accurate. To address this issue, the Indian Railways has revealed how waiting list tickets are confirmed and the formula used for confirmation.
High Demand During Festive Seasons
The demand for train tickets surges during festival seasons, with waiting lists sometimes reaching up to 500. However, the chances of confirmation during such peak times are quite low. Waiting list tickets are confirmed in two ways, one is through normal cancellations and the other is through railway’s emergency quota.
Average Ticket Cancellation
On average, 21% of passengers cancel their train tickets after making reservations. This means that there is approximately a 21% chance of a waiting list ticket being confirmed. For instance, in a sleeper coach with 72 seats, about 14 seats are likely to become available. Additionally, around 4-5% of passengers who purchase tickets do not actually travel. Taking this into account, the likelihood of confirmation increases to approximately 25%, meaning up to 18 seats per sleeper coach can be confirmed.
Total Seats Confirmed Per Train
For example, if a train has 10 sleeper coaches, each with 18 seats becoming available, this means 180 waiting list seats across the train can potentially be confirmed. The same formula applies to third AC, second AC, and first AC coaches.
Additional Confirmations Through Emergency Quota
The Railway Ministry reserves 10% of seats under an emergency quota. These reserved seats are allocated to sick or needy passengers at the discretion of the railways. If only 5% of the reserved seats are used, the remaining 5% are added back to the pool, further increasing the chances of waiting list tickets being confirmed.
