Hispanic shoppers are spending less on groceries, pressuring companies

Hispanic consumers are cutting back their grocery spending on everything from beer to cooking spray, executives said during recent earnings calls.

Coca-Cola, Constellation Brands and Colgate-Palmolive are among the companies that have reported a slowdown in North American sales from Hispanic shoppers.

A fifth of the U.S. population identifies as Hispanic or Latino, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Hispanics are now the second-largest demographic in the U.S. and the second-fastest growing ethnic group, agency data shows.

As the population of Hispanic consumers grows, so does their purchasing power — and their contribution to companies’ bottom lines. According to the latest data from economic think tank Latino Donor Collaborative, the U.S. Latino economy grew to $3.6 trillion in 2022, up from $3.2 trillion the prior year. And when it comes to shopping, Hispanic Americans overall spend more on consumer packaged goods and outpace non-Hispanic consumers, according to market research firm Circana.

But the White House’s hard-line immigration stance and broader economic concerns have led some Hispanic consumers to pull back their spending.

Hispanic consumers drove a sharp decline in consumer net purchase intent in January, although the trend moderated in February, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs, citing HundredX data. The metric refers to the ratio of customers who intend to buy more from a brand subtracted from those who plan to buy less.

A contributing factor to the dip, some experts say, is fear around stricter immigration policy.

While the Trump administration has deported fewer people than President Joe Biden’s administration during the year-ago period, reports from Immigration and Customs Enforcement show it is holding 10% more detainees than it was under Biden.

Hispanic consumers helped Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial overtake Bud Light as the nation’s top-selling beer. More than 50% of Modelo drinkers are Hispanic, according to CEO Bill Newlands.

The Latino unemployment rate ticked up to a seasonally adjusted 5.2% in April, from 4.8% a year earlier and 5.1% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Things like social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer, are declining today,” Newlands added.

Constellation, which also owns Corona, has repeatedly self-reported that Hispanic Americans make up roughly half of the company’s overall beer business. Hispanic- and Latino-identifying customers accounted for 32.5% of Constellation Brands’ sales in 2023, according to data from consumer research firm Numerator and investment bank Jefferies.

And Constellation isn’t the only brewer seeing a downturn. Sam Adams’ owner Boston Beer referred to a similar decline in its quarterly report.

“The macroeconomic winds are obviously the consumer confidence, the fear of inflation; there is also some pullback from the Hispanic consumers that they’re just not going out as much,” said Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane.

Hispanic consumers are also pulling back on their non-alcoholic beverage purchases.

Spending by Hispanic consumers has softened over the last couple of months, Keurig Dr Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said on the company’s conference call in late April.

“When you dig into that, you see that manifesting both in terms of fewer trips and lower spend per trip,” he told analysts.

Hispanic consumers make up “a meaningful percentage” of Keurig Dr Pepper’s business and broader consumer packaged goods category, according to Cofer. The company owns brands popular with Hispanic consumers like Squirt soda, Peñafiel mineral water and Clamato, which can be mixed with beer to make micheladas.

Still, the slowdown was not enough to cause Keurig Dr Pepper to lower its full-year outlook.

Rival Coca-Cola also didn’t trim its forecast, but it is prioritizing winning back Hispanic consumers next quarter.

For years, the company has targeted Latinos through advertising and acquisitions, like the 2017 purchase of Mexico’s Topo Chico. Mexico is also a top market for its namesake beverage. But this quarter, executives said weaker traffic from Hispanic shoppers weighed on its North American volume, fueled in part by a boycott.

In February, rumors spread on social media that Coke had reported undocumented workers to U.S. immigration authorities. Coke denied the accusations, but CEO James Quincey said last week that the “completely false” videos hurt traffic, particularly in Southern states.

And Coke is seeing additional fallout south of the border from the tensions around the Trump administration’s policies.

“Some of the geopolitical tension and Hispanic pullback also affected the Mexican [market], particularly the border region, which is very connected to the U.S.,” Quincey told analysts on the company’s conference call.

The pullback from Hispanic consumers didn’t just hit the beverage aisle. Other parts of the grocery store are feeling the heat, too.

Associated British Foods saw the pullback hit U.S. sales of its Mazola cooking oils, which is the country’s top-selling oil brand.