California-led EV mandates ‘impossible’ to meet

DETROIT — Toyota Motor sounded the alarm Friday that California-led electric vehicle mandates that are set to start next year are “impossible” to meet and, if they’re not changed, will lead to less customer choice in several states.

Current requirements under the California Air Resources Board’s “Advanced Clean Cars II” regulations call for 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles, or ZEV. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission under the regulations.

“I have not seen a forecast by anyone … government or private, anywhere that has told us that that number is achievable. At this point, it looks impossible,” Jack Hollis, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, said during a virtual media roundtable Friday. “Demand isn’t there. It’s going to limit a customer’s choice of the vehicles they want.”

The California Air Resources Board reports 12 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules. Roughly half of them did so starting with the 2027 model year. The EV mandates are part of CARB’s Advanced Clean Cars regulations that require 100% of new vehicle sales in the state of California to be zero-emission models by 2035.

J.D. Power said no states are in accordance with the EV mandate as of this year. Only California (27%), Colorado (22%) and Washington (20%) have seen at least 20% of retail sales being EVs or PHEVs this year. Other states such as New York (12%), New Mexico (5%) and Rhode Island (9%) are far from compliant.

The national average of EV/PHEV adoption for retail sales is only 9% through October, J.D. Power said Friday.

Hollis said if the mandates are unchanged, it will lead to “unnatural acts” in the automotive industry that have already begun at some automakers, where companies are supplying states which have agreed to the rules with a disproportionate amount of electrified models.

“It’s going to distort the industry. It’s going to distort the business. Why? Because it’s unnatural to what the current demand in the marketplace is,” Hollis, a longtime automotive executive, said.

Several automotive insiders previously told CNBC that the EV mandate issue needed to be addressed regardless of who won election this year.

The California Air Resources Board did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office, a legal battle ensued to revoke states’ ability to set their own emissions standards. Several officials expect Trump to renew that push once he’s back in the White House.

Hollis said that he “hopes it doesn’t come to that” this time around, and that the states, federal government and auto industry can come to a resolution. He also said Toyota would prefer one national standard — a sentiment many automakers previously shared.

“We would always want a 50-state rule, because that way we can treat all customers, all dealers, equally, fairly, whatever that might be,” Hollis said. “Our hope would be is that California and [the Environmental Protection Agency] would match up, and it would be reduced down to something that is achievable. Even if it’s a push, even if it’s a reach, but at this point, it’s an impossible stage.”